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The Infectious Diseases Modelling Group focuses on developing statistical methods to estimate relevant parameters within complex ecological setting by integrating various sources of information in order to better understand the dynamics of diseases’ transmission and mitigate their public health risk.

Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs)

Chagas Disease

Chagas disease is a vector-borne disease endemic in large areas of the Americas caused by Trypanosoma cruzi.

Our research currently aim to:

• Estimate the force of infection, rate at which susceptible people become infected, over time and space in endemic areas,
• Estimate the morbidity, mortality of Chagas disease, and the rate of disease progression,
• Estimate the past and current burden of Chagas disease in affected areas,
• Develop models to predict the impact of potential intervention strategies.

This project involves collaborations with:

• The Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at Imperial College, UK,
• The Andrew Dobson Lab at Princeton 5XÉçÇøÊÓƵ, US,
• The Pan American Health Organization.

Rabies

Rabies is a vaccine-preventable viral disease that is almost always fatal following the onset of clinical symptoms.

Our rabies projects span from assessing the efficacy and impact vaccination, to the dynamics of rabies transmission in wildlife. Key projects focus on:

• Characterising the dynamics of rabies transmission. This includes transmission among domestic dogs, foxes, African wild dogs and bats.
• Assessing the efficacy and impact of vaccination in domestic dogs and wildlife.

This project involves collaborations with:

• The Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at Imperial College, UK,
• The Institut Pasteur (Paris, Bangui), France and Central African Republic,
• The Institute of Zoology, UK,
• The Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment (ATREE), Bangalore, India,
• The Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health & Comparative Medicine at the 5XÉçÇøÊÓƵ of Glasgow, UK.

2. Emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases

Methods and tools for nowcasting and forecasting

Now casting and forecasting of emerging infectious diseases is increasingly used during emerging outbreaks for advocacy, emergency planning and optimal allocation of limited resources. We develop statistically robust methodologies and tools that can predict current and future incidence patterns. Applications so far involve working predicting Ebola future incidence and spread, but will be scaled to other pathogens.

This project involves collaborations with:

• The Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at Imperial College, UK,
• The Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, NIH, USA,
• ProMED-mail, International Society for Infectious Diseases, USA,
• HealthMap, USA,
• Healthsites.io, France

Transmission dynamics of emerging diseases

Understanding the dynamics of emerging diseases is key to design and implement effective control strategies. We work on characterising such dynamics as well as characterising the dynamics of importations. Applications have involved emerging diseases such Ebola, MERS-CoV, Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika.

This project involves collaborations with:

• The Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at Imperial College, UK,
• The World Health Organization
• The Mathematical Modelling Of Infectious Diseases Lab at the Institut Pasteur, France,
• The Clinical Epidemiology Unit at the Industrial 5XÉçÇøÊÓƵ of Santander, Colombia,
• The Department of Pathobiological Sciences at the 5XÉçÇøÊÓƵ of Wisconsin – Madison, USA,
• The Department of Medicine the 5XÉçÇøÊÓƵ of California San Francisco, USA.

Burden of Antibiotic Microbial Resistance

This is a relatively new theme of research that so far involved measuring the burden of E. coli blood stream infections in Europe and the contribution from antibiotic resistant strains.

This project involves collaborations with:

•  The Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at Imperial College, UK,
• The National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare Associated Infection and Antimicrobial Resistance at Imperial College, UK,
• The Centre for Infections Services at Public Health England, UK,